Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 0.007147 0.008055 0.009047 0.010216 0.011556 0.013050 0.014844
2024-10-06 0.005630 0.006840 0.008279 0.010127 0.012451 0.015295 0.019068
2024-10-13 0.005063 0.006469 0.008239 0.010654 0.013892 0.018131 0.024173
2024-10-20 0.004328 0.005746 0.007611 0.010275 0.014032 0.019216 0.027046
2024-10-27 0.003809 0.005224 0.007155 0.010025 0.014254 0.020369 0.030088
2024-11-03 0.003482 0.004917 0.006943 0.010066 0.014856 0.022091 0.034161
2024-11-10 0.003313 0.004810 0.006993 0.010478 0.016037 0.024795 0.040122
2024-11-17 0.003023 0.004492 0.006693 0.010312 0.016280 0.026032 0.043821
2024-11-24 0.002820 0.004285 0.006536 0.010345 0.016831 0.027814 0.048684
2024-12-01 0.002591 0.004014 0.006252 0.010135 0.016941 0.028839 0.052299
2024-12-08 0.002476 0.003914 0.006229 0.010354 0.017804 0.031277 0.058911
2024-12-15 0.002327 0.003745 0.006076 0.010328 0.018221 0.032938 0.064232
2024-12-22 0.002106 0.003444 0.005685 0.009862 0.017809 0.033048 0.066545
2024-12-29 0.001970 0.003280 0.005517 0.009785 0.018128 0.034630 0.072269
2025-01-05 0.001939 0.003292 0.005657 0.010291 0.019636 0.038789 0.084393
2025-01-12 0.001783 0.003070 0.005358 0.009927 0.019351 0.039178 0.087912
2025-01-19 0.001659 0.002896 0.005133 0.009687 0.019294 0.040043 0.092712
2025-01-26 0.001583 0.002805 0.005053 0.009726 0.019828 0.042279 0.101310
2025-02-02 0.001556 0.002804 0.005145 0.010122 0.021183 0.046566 0.116031
2025-02-09 0.001466 0.002675 0.004978 0.009963 0.021276 0.047901 0.123094
2025-02-16 0.001405 0.002597 0.004905 0.009994 0.021808 0.050366 0.133792
2025-02-23 0.001323 0.002474 0.004733 0.009792 0.021768 0.051393 0.140516
2025-03-02 0.001289 0.002444 0.004746 0.010003 0.022740 0.055145 0.156197